In 2014 the Twins are
going to have a tough decision to make at 2nd base when Eddie
Rosario is expected to be ready for the Major Leagues. Do you go with the steady hand at second base
that is Brian Dozier or do you go for higher upside who is less likely to reach
that upside in Eddie Rosario. They both
have some positives and negatives to them so there is really not an easy answer
to this. It basically comes down to how
much you believe in upside because if you are talking upside Rosario is the guy
as he just oozes upside. However, if you
prefer a second baseman that will make all the plays at 2nd and put
together solid at bats who is doing fine at the major league level this year
than your guy should be Dozier. The
interesting thing about this topic is there is no perfect choice as each choice
has some risk and each choice also has some reward so it will be very
interesting to see which way the Twins will go in 2014.
To start with the incumdent Brian Dozier was a 8th
round pick in 2009 out of the University of Southern Mississippi as a
shortstop. He signed quickly and was
sent to Elizabethton where in 53 games he hit .353 with 38 runs scored and a
.417 OBP. In 2010 he started the season
in Beloit where he hit .278 with 24 runs scored and a .347 OBP in 39
games. He was then promoted to Fort
Myers where he hit .274 with 44 runs scored and a .352 OBP in 93 games. In his first two pro seasons he was as solid
as you could be and there were many that thought Dozier could keep moving
through the system as the Shortstop of the future.
Even after doing well in Fort Myers in 2010, Dozier began
the year still in Fort Myers, but would not stay long. In 49 games he hit .320 with 32 runs scored
and a impressive .423 OBP with the Miracle.
Dozier then moved on to New Britain where in 78 games he hit .318 with
60 runs scored and an impressive .384 OBP.
He then came into Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and almost
making team before going to Rochester.
In 48 games at Rochester he hit just .232 while scoring just 15 runs
with a .286 OBP, but a lot of those numbers came after he got sent back down
after a stint with the Twins and it did not go very well the second stint in
Rochester.
Then on May 5th, Dozier received the call that
so many wish for and was called up to the Twins. Things did not go real well in Dozier’s first
taste of the major leagues as he hit just .234 with 33 runs scored and a OBP of
just .271. To make matters worse he was
struggling at shortstop as he committed 15 errors in just 84 games with the
Twins. Finally, in August he was sent
down and in the offseason the decision was made to make Dozier a full time
second baseman. The results have been
mixed so far this season as Dozier is hitting just .235 while scoring 36 runs
with an OBP of .315. Brian Dozier has
had good times and bad, but it feels like he is finally turning the corner and
can make a good case why he should be the second baseman of the future.
Eddie Rosario was drafted by the Twins in the 4th
round of the 2010 MLB draft out of Puerto Rico as a centerfielder. He spent the 2010 season in the GCL where he
hit .294 and scored 34 runs with an OBP of .343. He moved up to Elizabethton in 2011 and that
is where his stock really took off. He
and fellow prospect Miguel Sano put on a power display unseen in years. Rosario
ended up winning MVP honors in the Appalacian League when he hit .337 with 21
homeruns and drove in 60 with a crazy 1.068 OPS. Being slight of build at only six feet tall and
weighing 170 lbs you knew that wouldn’t last with the power numbers. The Twins in the fall of 2011 did something
that was unheard of and that is turn a good centerfielder into a 2nd
baseman a position he hadn’t played since high school.
Rosario came into 2012 season not only joining a full season
league, but also a new position. He did
alright in Beloit hitting .296 with 12 homeruns and 70 rbi’s along with scoring
60 runs with a .835 OPS in just 95 games as he missed time due to injury. This year he joined the Fort Myers Miracle
and did really well hitting .329 with 6 homeruns and 35 rbi’s along with
scoring 40 runs with a .903 OPS. This led to a midseason promotion to AA New
Britain. He got off to a slow start in
New Britain, but started putting it together right before the All-Star break as
he is hitting .275 in just 24 games.
Something that has to be mentioned that in Elizabethton and then again
in Fort Myers he has been pulled from games for not hustling balls out. He is very confident and that is something he
is just going to have to overcome.
Now
the fun really begins as we compare the two to determine who is the 2nd
baseman of the future. There are really
two ways to look at this when deciding which is the better option. If you look at defense then the option is
clear as Eddie Rosario is not in Brian Dozier’s league as a defensive 2nd
baseman. That is not to say that Rosario
is not a solid 2nd baseman because he is, but you have to remember
he has only been playing second for two years.
Dozier has soft hands and good range for the position, while Rosario
will still make the error that your like wow I can’t believe he made it and his
arm is not bad, but Brian Dozier has a shortstop quality arm. However, if you are going to talk offense
there is no comparison as Dozier is a .256 career hitter while Rosario is a
.310 career hitter. So it comes down to
offense or defense what do you prefer because Dozier is very good defensively,
but Rosario has hit at every level he has ever played at showing gap to gap
power who will hit a lot of double and possibly double digit hr years.
This
was closer than I thought it would be when I started doing research so I went
to the best prospect guide I know and that’s the great Seth Stohs and I asked
him several questions about this two. I
asked him the strengths and weaknesses of the two and he started with Dozier
and his strengths and weaknesses.
According to Seth, “Great
defense, good 2B range, generally takes good at bats. Based on minor
league track record and what he did in June, he could be a guy who walks about
as much as he strikes out and have some extra base power. He can be a league
average or even a little better, starting 2B. His weaknesses are Before
June, his big league time had been pretty underwhelming. He struggled
defensively at shortstop, and at the plate, he was admittedly a mess last year.
His approach at the plate was much bettre this year but he numbers didn't come
on until June. His "toolbox" isn't exceptional, but he is a ball
player.”
Now on to Rosario’s strengths and weaknesses
starting with the strengths, “He is a line drive hitter who uses the whole
field. He will have a little bit of power. He really has a quick, left-handed bat
and a good, but aggressive, approach at the plate. Then his weaknesses, “Although his defense at
2B is greatly improved, that will remain a question mark until we see him.” I then asked Seth how big of an upside does
Rosario have, “ I can see him
being the type of guy who could have a few years where he hits .310 with 40+
doubles, 15-20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. HE could be an All Star second
baseman.” I then asked if he
thought Brian Dozier could effectively play shortstop to get them both in
lineup, “Effectively? Sure. He has played shortstop his whole life, and
although he really struggled in his time with the Twins in 2012 didn't show it
at all, I think he can be a solid defensive shortstop. That's not to say a Gold
Glover, but a guy who can make the routine plays, for sure.” The final question that I asked Seth was if
he was making out the lineup who would he want at second base, “ Right now, I'd definitely say Dozier. He
seems to have turned a corner and I would stand behind him. What will happen in
2013, who knows? We'll see how Eddie Rosario handles AA over the remainder of
the season. He'll be added to the 40 man roster, and he'll go to spring
training. He made a strong impression at spring training this year. By May or
June of next year, that answer may change. I suspect fans will be clamoring for
him by September.”
After taking Seth Stohs comments under consideration
there is no way in my mind that Eddie Rosario is not the 2nd baseman
of the future. His upside is just way to
much and he can be way to special. His
upside is unbelievable and he probably will not obtain the level that he
possibly could, but I will take upside over projectability any day of the
week. That is not to say that Brian
Dozier is not a very good defensive second baseman who has the ability to have
a high OBP. If I had to choose I would
take the easy way out and tell Brian Dozier in the offseason start working on
your shortstop game again so that I can have a middle infield of Dozier and
Rosario. How do you like that I refuse
to pick between the two, but if I was forced to it would be an easy decision
and that is Eddie Rosario is the Twins 2nd baseman of the
future. Let me know what you think of
this article, whether you agree or disagree I want to hear about it. You can either leave a comment in the comment
box or shoot me an email at texastwinsfan@gmail.com. You can also follow me on twitter
@texastwinsfan.
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